The UAE’s Strategy for Influence: Expanding Globally and Utilizing Proxies
The UAE’s strategy for gaining influence and expanding regionally hinges on two main approaches: exploring new external arenas and leveraging external agents, including armed militias.
According to the Asbab research platform, the UAE has moved beyond traditional small-state strategies of cautious diplomacy, establishing itself as a significant player not just in the Gulf and Arab world, but also across the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Horn of Africa, and East Africa.
The platform said that the UAE’s plots to gain influence are being carried out through a broad strategy to create regional influence represented by a series of logistical ports, both civilian and military, extending from the islands of Yemen, through Somalia and Tanzania, to the Egyptian ports in the Red Sea.
According to this strategic perspective, the UAE identifies Iran and political Islam as regional threats, while maintaining alliances with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel despite their ongoing competition and discrepancies. Turkey has moved from being regarded as a threat to aiming for an economic partnership.
However, the Emirati expansion abroad remains subject to the restrictions imposed on the state: geographically in terms of area and depth, and demographically in terms of work capacity and the ability to mobilize militarily.
To confront the first restriction, the Emirates considers avoiding direct targeting a vital necessity, which makes it active in more distant external arenas and avoids escalation with neighboring countries that can harm the state, and this also imposes on it the necessity of allying with forces that can deter neighbors.
The second restriction is that the UAE has resorted to recruiting external agents and supporting them financially and militarily to achieve its regional interests.
Given this situation, the UAE is not poised to replace its alliance with Washington with one involving other major global powers like China or Russia.
Instead, Abu Dhabi aims to strengthen its ties with Washington, seeking to cement a long-term partnership characterized by “clear and codified commitments,” as described by Emirati officials, which would remain stable regardless of changes in U.S. administrations.
Following the Houthi attacks, Abu Dhabi revisited its regional strategy, adopting a “zero problems” stance. This approach involves resolving conflicts through security and political accords with rivals, complemented by extensive trade and investment relations.
The intent is to strengthen the UAE’s network of interests with other parties, ensuring it can endure regional policy divergences or conflicting interests, and thereby lessen the chances of future attacks on its territory.
Therefore, the rapprochement with Turkey seemed quick and logical as a result of the possibility of focusing on mutually beneficial trade. This approach also includes targeting economic relations with Israel worth a trillion dollars over the next decade.
The official announcement of a one-year timetable for negotiating comprehensive economic agreements with eight countries within a year: the United Kingdom, South Korea, India, Turkey, Ethiopia, Kenya, Indonesia, and Israel.
Despite the normalization of relations, the “Iranian threat” remains a top priority for the UAE. As a result, the UAE’s strategy will persist in avoiding direct conflict with Tehran while aiming to counterbalance Iran by strengthening international security partnerships, particularly with the United States and India, and regional alliances with Turkey and Israel.
