Semafor: Increasing UAE-Israel Cooperation in the Face of Regional Instability

The American website Semafor emphasized the strengthening relationship between the UAE and Israel, even amid regional tensions following the Israeli war in Gaza, four years after the Abraham Accords were signed at the White House.

Semafor noted, “Some occasions are celebrated, while others are remembered.” During the first three years after the Abraham Accords were signed, Israeli and Emirati officials celebrated their progress.

However, the website pointed out that after the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack by Palestinian forces on southern Israel and the ensuing Gaza conflict, the fourth anniversary of the landmark agreement, which led to public normalization between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, passed quietly.

The site emphasized that despite ongoing regional tensions, the Abraham Accords remain intact, with trade between the UAE and Israel continuing to grow. Between January and July 2024, trade reached $1.92 billion, a 4% increase from the same period in 2023.

This, however, represents a deceleration—trade had grown by 17% in 2023 compared to the previous year. The current trajectory suggests the countries may fall short of their target of $10 billion in annual trade by 2028, a relatively modest goal for economies worth half a trillion dollars.

Karen Young, senior fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, noted that while the conflict makes private sector investments from the UAE into Israel more challenging, trade and investment flows continue.

A spokesperson from the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, a nonprofit based in Washington highlighted data from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, which does not fully include sensitive sectors like cybersecurity and defense.

Since October 7, various agreements and milestones that typically attract attention have largely gone unnoticed. These include the Abu Dhabi-backed Technology Innovation Institute’s plan to open an artificial intelligence center in Haifa, continued direct flights by flydubai and Etihad to Israel despite the conflict, and Mubadala Energy’s ongoing investment in an expanded Israeli gas field.

“The UAE-Israel relationship remains robust despite the regional tensions,” said Asher Friedman, director of the Abraham Accords Peace Institute in Israel, to Semafor.

Friedman added that the agreement has allowed the UAE to take a significant role in Gaza’s humanitarian efforts and work with Israel in preparing for the aftermath of the conflict.

An Israeli venture capital investor, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive ties between the two nations, highlighted that venture capital investments and knowledge-sharing between Israeli and Emirati startups remain strong, with no deals being called off because of the war.

The site observed that protests are banned in the UAE, making the absence of pro-Palestinian demonstrations unsurprising. However, other signs of changing attitudes have surfaced in different ways.

Marcy Schwarzman, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, pointed out that a shift is evident just by glancing at the social media accounts of embassies. Israeli Ambassador to the UAE, Amir Hayek, primarily posts holiday greetings, while Emirati Ambassador to Israel, Mohammed Al Khaja, hasn’t made a significant post on X since last year’s third anniversary of the Abraham Accords.