International Concerns Over UAE Plots in Syria After Assad
International Warnings on UAE’s Conspiracies in Syria Following Assad’s Fall
International concerns are rising over the UAE’s involvement in Syria in the aftermath of the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with accusations of Abu Dhabi inciting opposition factions and attempting to sow discord among various segments of Syrian society.
Following Assad’s sudden and rapid downfall, UAE officials have expressed deep suspicion regarding the Islamic affiliations of the armed groups that seized control of Damascus, particularly Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, due to their connections with the Muslim Brotherhood. This is seen by analysts as a sign of fears about diminishing influence in the region.
In a swift 11-day offensive, opposition groups, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist faction, captured Damascus on December 8, bringing an end to over 50 years of the Assad family rule.
Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s diplomatic advisor, voiced concerns during his speech at the “Global Policy Conference” in Abu Dhabi, remarking, “While there are reasonable calls for unity and not imposing a single system on all Syrians, the nature of the new powers, their ties to the Brotherhood and Al-Qaeda, are deeply troubling indicators.”
Sanaa Kassem, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, shared with AFP that Gargash’s comments reflect the UAE leadership’s wariness of Islamist groups, viewing them as destabilizing forces across the region.
The UAE has historically been distrustful of political Islam movements. Its policy is to oppose any form of political Islam, with the notable exception of the Afghan Taliban, primarily due to economic interests.
In 2014, the UAE designated 83 groups operating globally, including the Muslim Brotherhood, as “terrorist organizations,” many of which were involved in Syria.
Before that, the UAE had sentenced dozens of individuals accused of being part of Muslim Brotherhood cells aiming to overthrow the government, including the “Al-Islah Society,” the Brotherhood’s branch in the UAE.
Andreas Krieg, a lecturer at King’s College London’s Department of Security Studies, pointed out that while the UAE has updated its terrorist list, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham itself is not listed, although it is an offshoot of Jabhat al-Nusra, which was added to the list in 2014.
Krieg noted, “The Muslim Brotherhood is often used as a bogeyman by the UAE to discredit civil society and political actors in the region, portraying them as part of a chain leading to jihadist groups like Al-Qaeda or ISIS.”
For years, the UAE has invested heavily in its relationship with Bashar al-Assad, playing a significant role in encouraging other Arab nations, particularly Gulf countries, to normalize ties with his regime.
Last year, Assad returned to the “Arab fold” through the Arab Summit, ending a 12-year diplomatic isolation.
The UAE hoped to leverage its position as a key player in Syria’s post-war reconstruction, particularly after the 2017 Astana agreement helped bring a degree of stability to the country.
Krieg explained that the UAE “is attempting to secure whatever limited influence it still holds in Syria, though it is minimal. Like Iran, the UAE has suffered a significant blow to its strategy in Syria.”
The UAE has long viewed the Syrian uprising and revolutions through the lens of “regime security,” with Krieg stating, “For them, the victory of Assad or the victory of the counter-revolution against the 2011 uprising was not just a political issue—it was an ideological war as well.”
However, that long-standing investment collapsed rapidly, with Turkey and Qatar now emerging as key players in post-Assad Syria. This shift has led to concerns in the UAE about losing its central role in the region to Doha or Ankara.
Analysts emphasize that the Muslim Brotherhood, as an organization, has not existed in Syria since the 1980s, when President Hafez al-Assad dissolved it by force.
The UAE’s concerns over Turkey’s involvement in Syria are rooted in the belief that Turkey’s actions are driven more by self-interest than by a commitment to Syria’s stability.
Krieg noted, “Portraying Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as part of the Muslim Brotherhood is a lazy tactic to discredit this new socio-political entity emerging in Syria.”
Kristin Diwan from the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington observed that “the UAE shares the concerns of other Arab nations regarding Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and rejection of international terrorism,” and that the UAE has expressed fears of Syria descending into chaos. She also mentioned that the UAE harbors deep mistrust toward the new leadership in Damascus.
She added, “But the UAE’s distrust extends beyond this to all Sunni Islamist movements, seeing them as rivals in defining the region, which threatens its aspirations as a multicultural, open commercial hub.”
Krieg concluded, “The problem for the UAE now is that they feel they are conceding significant space in the Arab world to ideological rivals in Doha and Ankara.”
According to Diwan, “It is now up to other countries—perhaps not the Turks, but the broader international community—to convey to the UAE that this shift is not a threat.”
