In the light of the news that the UAE has withdrawn part of its troops in Yemen, the UAE-funded Transitional Council, which is funded by the UAE, has sent military reinforcements to the Yemeni province of Shabwa.
In addition to the forces of the “Shabwani elite”, founded by the UAE, which deployed in areas of oil fields in Shabwa in preparation for the next battle aimed at dividing0 Yemen, and to find an adequate economic structure of the state that wants to establish in the south of the country.
The UAE has recently sent its forces to the port of Belhaf, which is of great importance in the export of natural gas in order to prevent its exports so that the Yemeni state will not be able to secure operating expenses and find resources to cope with the economic challenges.
The UAE-Saudi coalition has kept the authority of the legitimate government in Yemen very weak. The movements of Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, Vice President of Yemen, are well thought out and calculated, and cannot exceed the limits of UAE and Saudi orders.
Observers say that the UAE has moved to the second phase of its plan. After being frustrated by the failure of its scheme in Socotra, it turned to support the subversive project by moving its tools to carry out coup d’état against the “legitimate authority” in these provinces, as the country seeks to prove that it has no ambitions in Yemen.
The important strategic location of Shabwa has made it an important station in the UAE, providing it with oil and gas and vital ports for export.
Observers consider that the UAE cannot profit militarily or politically, pointing out that its withdrawal will be a military loss to the war and will leave Saudi Arabia “alone”, with expectations to resort to a scenario of dialogue with the Houthis to reach full settlement of the issues of the political scene in the country.
According to Yemeni observers, the southern Yemeni resistance has played a major role in liberating large areas of the south, including areas which the legitimate forces could not free. The aim of these reinforcements is to normalize the situation and to continue exporting oil and gas.
Withdrawal without coordination with the legitimate government
A few days after the UAE withdrew large parts of its troops and military equipment from the southern city of Aden and the western coast of the Red Sea, it also began withdrawing troops from the central city of Marib on Thursday.
These sudden developments occurred without any coordination with the legitimate government or the Yemeni army, according to a government source. This raised a number of questions about the reasons for Abu Dhabi taking these steps and their timing, motives and implications on the Yemeni scene in general.
To know the motives of this withdrawal from Marib as some people see it as redeployment and repositioning of the forces. Yemeni military expert Ali al-Dahab said that what is happening is a comprehensive withdrawal from Yemen at the moment, and what is being driven by several influences.
Among these influences, according to al-Dahab, the reaction to the demands of the components and forces belonging to the forces of the peaceful youth revolution in 2011, which put the UAE in a balance with the Houthis.
He explained that the withdrawal of the UAE Patriot missile systems and other defense systems and forces is a lifting of the cover for those political forces that are intended to be vulnerable to blows Houthis.
According to al-Dahab, there are other motives, some of which relate to the early re-sharing of the gains of the war and the distribution of spheres of influence in Yemen, especially after the gap appeared clear in the informal media discourse between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Among other reasons, the city of Marib was and left alone in the face of the Houthis. There may be an order of coup or subversive action that would lead to a reality that would satisfy the UAE and its allies in the General People’s Congress and the Transition Council.
Colonel Khalid Al-Farah, the deputy spokesman for the National Army, confirmed that there were Saudi forces ready to replace the UAE forces as well as Yemeni army forces.
A military commander in the national army in Marib said that the repercussions of the withdrawal will certainly be negatively reflected in reality, and will cause a large gap, especially if the Patriot defense system is not replaced.
The UAE recently withdrew these missiles after they were brought in September 2015 when dozens of soldiers of the Saudi-UAE alliance were killed after a rocket attack…
The military official, who preferred not to be named, said that this rift in the course of the battle and the restoration of the Yemeni state is due to many reasons; including the attempts of the UAE in recent periods, “demonization” of some Yemeni parties, and work in a separate track from the directions of Saudi Arabia, that there is a hidden conflict between them because of the sharing of interests and influence in the country.
While the US Wall Street Journal confirmed that the UAE was seeking these withdrawals to escape from the Yemen war, Yemeni Brigadier General Mohammed Jawas ruled out that there would be – in the military sense – military withdrawals of the UAE armed forces as a result of the failure of the war.
Jawas said that what is happening is the transfer of anti-aircraft missiles from Marib to Aden, in anticipation of the Houthis targeting by the drones the military zone in Aden and government facilities.
He questioned what Wall Street said, because the force in the UAE was sufficient to repel any attacks on it, and what was present in Yemen was originally an excessive force. The same is true of Saudi Arabia, which has more troops on its border with Iraq than the forces on the border Yemen.
Asked about the timing of the withdrawal, Jawas said it was linked to the duration of the war, and that the entry of the conflict and the fifth Sunni war would have consequences beyond the results on the ground.
For his part, political analyst Abdel Nasser al-Mudhid says it is difficult to talk about withdrawal, and that the issue seems more like reducing the presence of troops in some areas and redeploying in other areas.
He added that the motives of these steps may be due to the desire of the UAE to focus on certain areas that it believes to be more important, such as the South, specifically the coastal areas and the island of Socotra.
The applicant points out that the UAE’s steps confirm the difficulty of passing its agenda and its cost in Yemen, which could lead to full withdrawal in the future if the political and economic costs of its survival increase, which is expected due to the growing chaos in Yemen.