UAE Allies with Israel to Prepare ‘Post-War Gaza Plan’

As Israel faces regional and international isolation due to its massacres in Palestine and Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates is aligning with Tel Aviv to prepare a “Post-War Gaza Plan” aimed at entrenching the Israeli vision.

American officials have disclosed that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is examining a post-war plan for Gaza that relies on concepts developed by Israel and the UAE, with plans to present it after the presidential elections, as reported by the American site Axios.

The site reported that many officials in the White House and the State Department are concerned that the plan could marginalize Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his government, which is a direction that Israel and the UAE are pushing toward in the near term.

However, given the lack of an agreement on a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire in Gaza, presenting a “next-day” plan could be a potentially positive contribution to the Biden administration’s legacy regarding the conflict.

Axios interviewed twelve officials from the U.S., Israel, Palestine, and the UAE who are knowledgeable about the issue for this story.

American officials say that some in the State Department, including Blinken, believe that reaching an agreement on a prisoner exchange and a ceasefire doesn’t seem feasible before the end of the Biden administration. Therefore, the Israeli-Emirati plan is viewed as a potential “alternative plan” that could start to outline a path out of the war.

However, other officials within the State Department argue that this idea is unwise and serves only the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, asserting that the Palestinians will certainly reject it, leading to its failure.

American, Israeli, and Emirati officials have indicated that the Biden administration, Israel, and the UAE have been discussing different ideas for potential plans for several months.

They added that former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has also been involved in the discussions, contributing some original concepts for the plan.

In July, President Biden’s Middle East advisor Brett McGurk and State Department advisor Tom Sullivan met in Abu Dhabi with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close ally of Netanyahu, and Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed to discuss this issue.

On the day before this meeting, the Emiratis introduced their proposal in an op-ed by Lana Nusseibeh, the Special Envoy for “Abu Dhabi Today.”

The plan proposed the establishment of a temporary international mission in Gaza, responsible for delivering humanitarian aid, enforcing law and order, and laying the groundwork for good governance.

The Emiratis proposed sending soldiers to Gaza as part of an international force. However, they stipulated that this would only occur following an official invitation from the Palestinian Authority, contingent upon “meaningful reforms led by a new Prime Minister with authority and independence.”

In practice, the Emiratis sought to marginalize Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whom they consider corrupt and incapable of fulfilling his responsibilities, effectively stripping him of any executive power.

They also wanted to replace the current Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mustafa, whom they view as loyal to Abbas.

One of the principles in the Emirati plan was that it would rely on an agreement among political leaders on a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.

Israeli officials indicate that Netanyahu was impressed by several elements of the Emirati plan, but he opposes the more political aspects, especially the participation of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and the concept of a two-state solution.

Officials reported that discussions about the Israeli-Emirati plan have received a boost in recent weeks.

At the end of September, Dermer and Abdullah had separate meetings with Blinken, who oversees this issue within the Biden administration, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Officials said that Abu Dhabi and Dermer asked Blinken for his assistance in bridging the remaining gaps between Israel and the UAE regarding the plan, and then endorsing it—or even converting it into a U.S. plan to be presented after the November elections.

There remains a gap concerning a new idea from the Emiratis that the plan would involve reopening the U.S. consulate in Jerusalem as a gesture to the Palestinians and a way to demonstrate that the United States is invested in the plan and leading the process.

American officials state that the Israelis are strongly against this idea, and they continue to oppose any reference to a two-state solution.

However, the main gap between Israel and the UAE concerns the precise role of the Palestinian Authority.

Emirati officials stated that the UAE wants the Palestinian Prime Minister to appoint a Palestinian figure to help lead the transition process in Gaza.

American and Israeli officials indicated that the Israelis will not entertain any potential role for the Palestinian Authority except in the long term.

Two senior officials at the U.S. State Department stated that if Blinken were to present a plan, it would include ideas from Israel and the UAE, along with U.S. proposals, in order to secure a wider consensus in the region.

A U.S. State Department official said, “We will not support a next-day plan without a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. The discussion is still ongoing regarding the nature of that role.”