UAE’s Disastrous Bet on Bashar Al-Assad’s Regime
Emirati Disappointment: Major Investment in Bashar al-Assad’s Regime Yields Zero Results
A sense of frustration and anger has engulfed the UAE leadership following its significant investment in the regime of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, with the results proving to be a complete failure as opposition forces gained control over Syria’s capital, Damascus, and other key cities.
A senior Western official working on Syrian affairs told Middle East Eye that Emirati officials are furious after investing heavily in Assad, “but Abu Dhabi has gained nothing from it.”
The report highlights that Gulf countries are scrambling in Syria with the return of Arab Spring ghosts, as the UAE is particularly angered by American support for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) through Turkey.
It pointed out that after years of attempting to crush Islamic political movements that the UAE viewed as a threat to its regime, the country now appears to be reconciling, possibly working with a government in Syria led by HTS, which is supported by competing Turkey, and growing closer to the United States.
The UAE, along with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, was caught off guard by what an Egyptian diplomat described as a “rapid renaming” of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda.
The UAE also expressed concern over U.S. maneuvers to open backdoor communications with HTS via Turkey, according to a senior Western official.
Before HTS took the lead in a swift assault to capture Damascus, the UAE had been mediating between Bashar al-Assad’s government and the United States. Abu Dhabi hoped to broker a major deal to keep the Assad family in power and facilitate the easing of U.S. sanctions in exchange for Assad closing Iranian weapons supply lines.
The rising mistrust mirrors the period following the 2011 Arab Spring when Saudi Arabia and the UAE opposed popular protests against Middle Eastern dictatorships and accused Turkey and Qatar of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
Aaron Lund, a Syria expert at the Century International think tank, remarked: “Rulers already paranoid about Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood will suddenly have to deal with something that resembles the Brotherhood, but stronger, more dangerous, and unpredictable in its actions.”
With the failure of the UAE and Saudi Arabia’s strategy to rehabilitate Assad, analysts believe the Gulf countries have few options left but to engage with HTS and absorb Turkey’s influence.
The actions and rhetoric of the United States since the collapse of Assad’s government suggest a willingness to work with HTS, at least for the time being.
In recent years, the UAE has led political and diplomatic efforts in the Arab world and internationally to normalize relations with Assad’s regime and reduce its international isolation.
The UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus on December 27, 2018, followed by a visit from Assad and several Syrian government delegations to the UAE, leading to the signing of major economic agreements.
