Le Monde: The UAE has hindered the creation of a democratic alternative in Sudan

The French newspaper Le Monde stated that the UAE has undermined the establishment of a democratic alternative in Sudan and, instead, has fueled the civil war in the country as part of Abu Dhabi’s conspiracy to gain influence and expand.

The newspaper published a report highlighting the humanitarian disaster ravaging Sudan, which can only be halted through a political agreement that includes civilian forces, rather than being limited to the warlords who have been fighting each other since April 2023.

It stated that the Sudanese people provided a lesson in democracy to the world when, through a peaceful uprising in April 2019, they overthrew the dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled the country for thirty years.

The report mentioned that the democratic transition process was halted in October 2021 due to a coup carried out by Generals Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, the leader of the Rapid Support Forces.

Due to their ambitious goals and conflicting interests, Burhan and Dagalo have been fighting a fierce war since April 2023, starting from the capital, Khartoum, and gradually spreading across the country. The war has caused tens of thousands of civilian casualties, especially in Darfur, where the advance of the Rapid Support Forces—which originally emerged from militias responsible for the 2003 genocide—was accompanied by massacres against non-Arab populations.

According to the paper, despite Sudan’s suffering, there is little international attention, except from powers opposed to establishing a democratic alternative in Khartoum, primarily the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

It pointed out that Abu Dhabi, along with its allies in Riyadh and Cairo, has consolidated its efforts in a firm commitment against revolutions to support the 2021 coup. However, the “generals’ war” that broke out a year and a half after the coup has significantly deepened the divisions within this pro-coup trio.

The newspaper reported that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman claims to adopt a neutral stance towards the warring parties, which allows him to cooperate with Joe Biden and his administration in efforts to seek approval that ultimately failed.

Meanwhile, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has backtracked on his initial support for the Sudanese Armed Forces due to the return of Islamic figures, who had been ousted after the 2019 revolution, to Burhan’s inner circle.

UAE leader Mohammed bin Zayed, for his part, continues to provide significant and unconditional support to the Rapid Support Forces, which now control a large part of the capital and Darfur.

Bin Zayed also encourages “Hemeti” to try to take control of Al-Fasher, the only significant city still outside the Rapid Support Forces’ control in Darfur, at the cost of a siege with catastrophic consequences.

The UAE’s hardline stance contrasts with the more cautious approach of its Russian ally, which combines official relations with the Sudanese Armed Forces in its pursuit of a naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea, and cooperation with the Rapid Support Forces through mercenaries linked to the private military company “Wagner.”

This cooperation prompted Ukrainian intelligence to temporarily coordinate with the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces in the fall of 2023, although this intervention has not led to any subsequent developments.

The paper concluded that these various international interventions failed to stop the escalation toward extremism, and the policies adopted by the UAE, for example, have directly contributed to fueling it.

The logic of total war that drives both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has led to the militarization of Sudanese society, with its components being forced to side with one of the parties in this conflict.

Moreover, the rise of numerous militias, varying in discipline, allows both Burhan and Hemeti to absolve themselves of personal responsibility for the growing violations.

However, negotiations are underway with both sides to provide humanitarian aid to the population bearing the burden of occupation imposed by the Sudanese Armed Forces or the Rapid Support Forces. As such, the United Nations considers Burhan, who took power after the 2021 coup, the legitimate head of state.

As a result, the UN can maintain its presence in Port Sudan, the country’s main port, after having to evacuate Khartoum a year and a half ago.

The United Nations ensures the delivery of humanitarian aid through Chad, via the Tina crossing controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces, while many NGOs prefer to operate from the Chadian city of Adré, which provides access to Sudan through areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces.

However, these humanitarian arrangements have failed to stop the ongoing crisis in Sudan.

Of Sudan’s 44 million population, about 12 million have been forcibly displaced, with three million having to seek refuge abroad, especially in Chad.

Due to the siege and bombing, famine threatens many areas of the country, which means that humanitarian aid cannot be separated from a political agreement.

In conclusion, the report points out that the inability of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023 to achieve a military victory requires the cessation of this war and the conclusion of a political agreement to ensure Sudan’s survival as a state in 2025.